Premier League · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Fulham 1-1 Newcastle

My shortlist

Fulham the pick at home to Newcastle

The model's view

44%

27%

29%

Fulham win 44% confidence: low

Early prediction: 43% / 28% / 28%; re-priced when the line-ups came out.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 27%.

Fulham are 15th with 9 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank 9th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Newcastle are 13th with 11 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank only 19th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Fulham took 8 points from 5 games, Newcastle 7 from 5; on performance Fulham were 1.0 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 15 · performance rank 9 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −4.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Liverpool (A)	0-0	−0.11
20 Sept	Man United (H)	1-1	+0.15
10 Oct	Ipswich (A)	1-2	+0.36
17 Oct	Hull (H)	1-0	+0.32
24 Oct	Coventry (A)	1-0	−0.20
31 Oct	Aston Villa (A)	1-1	+0.60

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 13 · performance rank 19 Flattered

Points per game: 1.22 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.50 away. Points v an average side: −2.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
14 Sept	Leeds (A)	1-4	−0.88
19 Sept	Hull (H)	2-1	−1.06
12 Oct	Coventry (A)	1-4	+0.15
17 Oct	Aston Villa (H)	0-1	−0.75
25 Oct	Crystal Palace (A)	2-0	−0.73
2 Nov	Everton (H)	0-1	−0.89

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Fulham: 8 pts from 5, performance +0.29. Newcastle: 7 pts from 5, performance −0.74.

Fulham: Usual strength. (confirmed XI)

Newcastle: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Joe Willock, Sven Botman, Lewis Miley, Matías Fernández-Pardo. (confirmed XI)