Premier League · Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 Logged before kick-off

Leeds 1-0 Tottenham

My shortlist

Leeds v Tottenham: too close to call

The model's view

39%

27%

34%

Leeds win 39% confidence: coin flip

Early prediction: 44% / 28% / 27%; re-priced when the line-ups came out.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 39%.

Leeds are 12th with 11 points from 9 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Tottenham are 9th with 12 points from 9 games. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Leeds took 9 points from 5 games, Tottenham 5 from 5; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Leeds have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 12 · performance rank 10 As it looks

Points per game: 1.22 overall, 1.50 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: +0.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
14 Sept	Newcastle (H)	4-1	+0.93
20 Sept	Crystal Palace (H)	0-0	−0.08
10 Oct	Arsenal (A)	1-2	−0.91
18 Oct	Man United (H)	1-1	+0.60
25 Oct	Sunderland (A)	0-0	−0.24
31 Oct	Bournemouth (A)	0-2	−0.22

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 9 · performance rank 7 As it looks

Points per game: 1.33 overall, 1.40 at home, 1.25 away. Points v an average side: −0.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Everton (H)	0-0	−0.58
19 Sept	Aston Villa (H)	2-3	+0.22
10 Oct	Man United (A)	1-1	+1.34
19 Oct	Coventry (H)	3-1	−0.46
24 Oct	Chelsea (A)	2-0	+0.57
31 Oct	Crystal Palace (H)	2-0	+2.96

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Leeds: 9 pts from 5, performance +0.27. Tottenham: 5 pts from 5, performance +0.35.

Leeds: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Noah Okafor, Anton Stach. (confirmed XI)

Tottenham: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Dominic Solanke, Sávio. (confirmed XI)