Premier League · Sat 7 Nov, 17:30 Logged before kick-off

Nott'm Forest 3-1 Man City

My shortlist

Man City the pick away at Nott'm Forest

The model's view

15%

20%

64%

Man City win 64% confidence: high

Early prediction: 20% / 25% / 55%; re-priced when the line-ups came out.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 15%.

Nott'm Forest are 19th with 6 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank 4th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Man City are 2nd with 21 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Nott'm Forest took 5 points from 5 games, Man City 12 from 5; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Signal: Man City, unlucky last defeat (0-1 v Brighton, despite creating more).
▲ Man City: unlucky last defeat (0-1 v Brighton, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Nott'm Forest have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 19 · performance rank 4 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.67 overall, 0.25 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −6.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Aston Villa (A)	2-1	+1.62
19 Sept	Coventry (H)	0-1	−0.16
11 Oct	Crystal Palace (A)	1-3	+0.88
18 Oct	Arsenal (H)	0-1	+0.21
23 Oct	Ipswich (A)	1-1	+1.60
31 Oct	Brentford (A)	0-2	+0.59

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 2 · performance rank 3 As it looks

Points per game: 2.33 overall, 2.40 at home, 2.25 away. Points v an average side: +8.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Man United (A)	1-0	+0.64
20 Sept	Sunderland (H)	5-3	−1.13
11 Oct	Liverpool (A)	3-0	+0.81
17 Oct	Ipswich (H)	3-2	+1.26
24 Oct	Aston Villa (A)	1-2	+1.13
31 Oct	Brighton (H)	0-1	+0.87

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Nott'm Forest: 5 pts from 5, performance +1.00. Man City: 12 pts from 5, performance +0.99.

Nott'm Forest: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Dan Ndoye, Ousmane Diomande. (confirmed XI)

Man City: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Antoine Semenyo, Matheus Nunes. (confirmed XI)