Primeira Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 18:00 Logged before kick-off

Alverca 1-1 Casa Pia

My shortlist

Alverca the pick at home to Casa Pia

The model's view

57%

26%

17%

Alverca win 57% confidence: medium ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 57% / 26% / 17%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 26%.

Alverca are 11th with 11 points from 10 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Casa Pia are 16th with 7 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Alverca took 2 points from 5 games, Casa Pia 3 from 5; on performance Alverca were 0.9 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 11 · performance rank 7 As it looks

Points per game: 1.10 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.20 away. Points v an average side: −0.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Sp Braga (H)	1-2	−0.87
12 Sept	Nacional (A)	3-1	−1.09
19 Sept	Rio Ave (H)	1-0	+2.06
12 Oct	Famalicao (A)	4-1	+2.99
24 Oct	Arouca (H)	0-1	−1.80
2 Nov	Benfica (A)	0-1	+0.86

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 16 · performance rank 16 As it looks

Points per game: 0.70 overall, 0.00 at home, 1.40 away. Points v an average side: −5.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
6 Sept	Guimaraes (A)	0-0	−2.20
12 Sept	Porto (H)	1-4	−0.25
20 Sept	Estoril (A)	2-1	+1.24
10 Oct	Santa Clara (H)	0-1	−0.29
24 Oct	Estrela (A)	2-0	−1.11
30 Oct	Sp Lisbon (H)	0-2	−1.26

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Alverca: 2 pts from 5, performance −0.05. Casa Pia: 3 pts from 5, performance −0.97.

Alverca: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Steven Baseya, Rayan Lucas. (confirmed XI)

Casa Pia: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Lawrence Ofori, Ivan Mandić, Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri. (confirmed XI)