Primeira Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 15:30 Logged before kick-off

Nacional 1-0 Academico Viseu

My shortlist

Academico Viseu the pick away at Nacional

The model's view

28%

31%

41%

Academico Viseu win 41% confidence: low

Early prediction: 28% / 31% / 41%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Nacional are 15th with 7 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Academico Viseu are 6th with 20 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank only 12th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Nacional took 4 points from 6 games, Academico Viseu 15 from 6; on performance Academico Viseu were 0.6 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Academico Viseu have won 6 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 15 · performance rank 15 As it looks

Points per game: 0.70 overall, 1.20 at home, 0.20 away. Points v an average side: −6.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Sp Lisbon (A)	0-2	−0.98
12 Sept	Alverca (H)	1-3	+0.45
19 Sept	Famalicao (H)	0-4	−0.26
11 Oct	Rio Ave (A)	2-3	−0.95
25 Oct	Sp Braga (H)	1-0	−1.05
1 Nov	Arouca (A)	0-1	−0.07

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 6 · performance rank 12 Flattered

Points per game: 2.00 overall, 1.80 at home, 2.20 away. Points v an average side: +7.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
6 Sept	Gil Vicente (A)	1-0	−1.32
12 Sept	Guimaraes (H)	2-1	−0.69
20 Sept	Estrela (A)	2-0	+1.58
10 Oct	Estoril (H)	2-1	−1.14
25 Oct	Sp Lisbon (A)	2-1	+0.35
1 Nov	Rio Ave (H)	2-1	−1.30

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Nacional: 4 pts from 6, performance −0.97. Academico Viseu: 15 pts from 6, performance −0.35.

Nacional: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Wesley Gasolina, Daniel Júnior, Pablo Messias Cardozo. (confirmed XI)

Academico Viseu: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Lorougnon Gohi, Gu Costa. (confirmed XI)