Primeira Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 20:30 Logged before kick-off

Sp Lisbon 1-0 Moreirense

My shortlist

Sp Lisbon the pick at home to Moreirense

The model's view

80%

14%

Sp Lisbon win 80% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 80% / 14% / 6%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 80%.

Sp Lisbon are 3rd with 21 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.1 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Moreirense are 9th with 14 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank only 17th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Sp Lisbon took 11 points from 5 games, Moreirense 8 from 5; on performance Sp Lisbon were 1.4 goals a game better.
Sp Lisbon look slightly weaker than usual (missing Rui Silva, Rodrigo Zalazar, Geny Catamo).

Position 3 · performance rank 3 As it looks

Points per game: 2.10 overall, 2.00 at home, 2.20 away. Points v an average side: +5.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Nacional (H)	2-0	+2.38
13 Sept	Famalicao (A)	1-1	+2.25
19 Sept	Arouca (H)	2-2	−1.06
9 Oct	Sp Braga (A)	3-1	+0.18
25 Oct	Academico Viseu (H)	1-2	+1.12
30 Oct	Casa Pia (A)	2-0	+1.82

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 9 · performance rank 17 Flattered

Points per game: 1.40 overall, 1.40 at home, 1.40 away. Points v an average side: +0.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
9 Sept	Benfica (H)	0-4	−1.41
14 Sept	Maritimo (H)	3-1	+0.32
20 Sept	Guimaraes (A)	1-1	−0.55
9 Oct	Gil Vicente (H)	0-1	−0.70
25 Oct	Estoril (A)	3-1	−0.78
31 Oct	Estrela (H)	2-1	−1.01

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Sp Lisbon: 11 pts from 5, performance +0.36. Moreirense: 8 pts from 5, performance −1.02.

Sp Lisbon: Slightly weaker than usual. Missing regulars: Rui Silva, Rodrigo Zalazar, Geny Catamo, Zeno Debast, Flávio Gonçalves. (confirmed XI)

Moreirense: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Maracás, Kiko Bondoso, Tiago Andrade, Kiko. (confirmed XI)