Scottish Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Arbroath 4-1 Ayr

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Arbroath v Ayr: too close to call

The model's view

33%

29%

38%

Ayr win 38% confidence: coin flip

Model's expected goals: Arbroath 1.1, Ayr 1.2.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 33%.

Arbroath are 8th with 11 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.7 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Ayr are 7th with 15 points from 12 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Arbroath took 11 points from 12 games, Ayr 12 from 11; on performance Ayr were 0.8 goals a game better.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Arbroath have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 8 · performance rank 10 As it looks

Points per game: 0.85 overall, 1.33 at home, 0.43 away. Points v an average side: −6.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
25 Sept	Queens Park (H)	2-1	+0.35
3 Oct	Partick (A)	0-3	−2.48
10 Oct	Morton (H)	1-2	−1.94
17 Oct	Inverness C (A)	0-2	−1.68
24 Oct	Livingston (A)	0-1	−0.37
31 Oct	Raith Rvs (H)	0-4	−4.01

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 7 · performance rank 6 As it looks

Points per game: 1.25 overall, 1.14 at home, 1.40 away. Points v an average side: −1.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
18 Sept	Queens Park (A)	2-0	+1.77
25 Sept	Stenhousemuir (H)	0-1	−1.13
3 Oct	Livingston (A)	2-1	+1.77
10 Oct	Dunfermline (H)	1-1	−0.01
16 Oct	Partick (H)	0-1	−0.78
31 Oct	Queens Park (H)	3-2	+0.28

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Arbroath: 11 pts from 12, performance −1.03. Ayr: 12 pts from 11, performance −0.25.

Arbroath:

Ayr: