Scottish Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Inverness C 1-1 Livingston

My shortlist

Livingston the pick away at Inverness C

The model's view

32%

29%

39%

Livingston win 39% confidence: low Shortlist

Model's expected goals: Inverness C 1.1, Livingston 1.3.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 29%.

Inverness C are 6th with 19 points from 13 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Livingston are 5th with 20 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Inverness C took 18 points from 12 games, Livingston 19 from 12; on performance Livingston were 0.5 goals a game better.

Position 6 · performance rank 5 As it looks

Points per game: 1.46 overall, 1.83 at home, 1.14 away. Points v an average side: +1.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
25 Sept	Morton (H)	2-0	+1.11
10 Oct	Stenhousemuir (H)	2-0	+1.90
13 Oct	Queens Park (A)	1-2	−1.35
17 Oct	Arbroath (H)	2-0	+1.39
24 Oct	Raith Rvs (A)	2-0	+2.53
31 Oct	Dunfermline (A)	1-5	−3.65

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 5 · performance rank 4 As it looks

Points per game: 1.54 overall, 1.43 at home, 1.67 away. Points v an average side: +2.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
25 Sept	Raith Rvs (A)	2-0	+2.57
3 Oct	Ayr (H)	1-2	−1.46
10 Oct	Partick (H)	1-2	−0.82
17 Oct	Dunfermline (A)	0-0	+0.33
24 Oct	Arbroath (H)	1-0	+0.35
30 Oct	Stenhousemuir (A)	3-0	+3.16

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Inverness C: 18 pts from 12, performance +0.01. Livingston: 19 pts from 12, performance +0.55.

Inverness C:

Livingston: