Scottish Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Morton 4-3 Stenhousemuir

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Morton v Stenhousemuir: too close to call

The model's view

34%

29%

37%

Stenhousemuir win 37% confidence: coin flip

Model's expected goals: Morton 1.2, Stenhousemuir 1.3.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 34%.

Morton are 9th with 10 points from 12 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Stenhousemuir are 4th with 23 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.1 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Morton took 10 points from 11 games, Stenhousemuir 20 from 12; on performance Stenhousemuir were 0.6 goals a game better.
Signal: Morton, smash-and-grab last win (3-2 v Partick, despite creating less).
▼ Morton: smash-and-grab last win (3-2 v Partick, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Stenhousemuir have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 9 · performance rank 8 As it looks

Points per game: 0.83 overall, 0.50 at home, 1.17 away. Points v an average side: −6.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Dunfermline (H)	0-1	−1.03
25 Sept	Inverness C (A)	0-2	−1.73
3 Oct	Raith Rvs (H)	1-2	−0.97
10 Oct	Arbroath (A)	2-1	+0.90
17 Oct	Queens Park (H)	2-0	+1.33
31 Oct	Partick (A)	3-2	+1.75

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 4 · performance rank 7 As it looks

Points per game: 1.77 overall, 1.86 at home, 1.67 away. Points v an average side: +6.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
25 Sept	Ayr (A)	1-0	+0.95
10 Oct	Inverness C (A)	0-2	−1.70
17 Oct	Raith Rvs (H)	1-1	+0.07
24 Oct	Partick (A)	0-3	−2.34
27 Oct	Dunfermline (H)	0-1	−1.00
30 Oct	Livingston (H)	0-3	−2.80

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Morton: 10 pts from 11, performance −0.55. Stenhousemuir: 20 pts from 12, performance +0.06.

Morton:

Stenhousemuir: