Scottish Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Queens Park 0-1 Partick

My shortlist

Partick the pick away at Queens Park

The model's view

19%

25%

56%

Partick win 56% confidence: medium Shortlist

Model's expected goals: Queens Park 0.7, Partick 1.5.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 56%.

Queens Park are 10th with 7 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 11 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.0 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Partick are 2nd with 25 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.1 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Queens Park took 6 points from 12 games, Partick 24 from 12; on performance Partick were 2.1 goals a game better.
Signal: Partick, unlucky last defeat (2-3 v Morton, despite creating more).
▲ Partick: unlucky last defeat (2-3 v Morton, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Position 10 · performance rank 9 As it looks

Points per game: 0.54 overall, 1.00 at home, 0.14 away. Points v an average side: −10.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
25 Sept	Arbroath (A)	1-2	−1.04
10 Oct	Raith Rvs (A)	0-2	−1.50
13 Oct	Inverness C (H)	2-1	+1.03
17 Oct	Morton (A)	0-2	−2.42
24 Oct	Dunfermline (H)	0-1	−1.02
31 Oct	Ayr (A)	2-3	−1.02

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 2 · performance rank 3 As it looks

Points per game: 1.92 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.83 away. Points v an average side: +6.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Arbroath (H)	3-0	+2.54
10 Oct	Livingston (A)	2-1	+1.70
16 Oct	Ayr (A)	1-0	+1.00
20 Oct	Dunfermline (A)	1-1	+0.32
24 Oct	Stenhousemuir (H)	3-0	+2.84
31 Oct	Morton (H)	2-3	−1.80

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Queens Park: 6 pts from 12, performance −1.23. Partick: 24 pts from 12, performance +0.83.

Queens Park:

Partick: