Scottish Premiership · Sat 7 Nov, 17:45 Logged before kick-off

Aberdeen 0-4 Hibernian

My shortlist

Hibernian the pick away at Aberdeen

The model's view

33%

28%

39%

Hibernian win 39% confidence: low

Early prediction: 33% / 28% / 39%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 39%.

The story

Aberdeen are 10th with 11 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Hibernian are 12th with 8 points from 11 games, but on performances they rank 6th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 10 sides both have played: Aberdeen took 10 points from 10 games, Hibernian 7 from 10; on performance Hibernian were 0.2 goals a game better.
In their favour: Hibernian take 1.4 points a game away.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Worth knowing

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Hibernian have gone 8 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Aberdeen

Position 10 · performance rank 7 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.17 at home, 0.80 away. Points v an average side: −3.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Sept	Motherwell (A)	4-0	+0.68
19 Sept	Hibernian (A)	1-1	−0.34
11 Oct	St Johnstone (H)	0-1	−0.29
17 Oct	St Mirren (H)	3-1	+0.78
24 Oct	Dundee United (A)	2-3	+0.14
28 Oct	Falkirk (H)	0-1	+0.17

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Hibernian

Position 12 · performance rank 6 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.73 overall, 0.17 at home, 1.40 away. Points v an average side: −7.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Sept	Kilmarnock (H)	0-1	−1.46
19 Sept	Aberdeen (H)	1-1	+0.03
10 Oct	Dundee United (A)	0-1	−0.89
17 Oct	Falkirk (H)	1-2	+0.05
25 Oct	Celtic (H)	1-2	+0.85
28 Oct	St Mirren (A)	1-1	−0.50

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Common opponents

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Aberdeen: 10 pts from 10, performance −0.16. Hibernian: 7 pts from 10, performance +0.08.

Aberdeen	Opponent	Hibernian
0-3 A (−0.6)	1. Celtic	1-2 H (+0.8)
0-1 H (−0.9)	2. Rangers	2-1 A (+0.9)
2-1 H (+1.0)	3. Hearts	1-3 H (+1.1)
0-1 H (+0.2)	4. Falkirk	1-2 H (+0.1)
0-2 A (−1.7)	5. Dundee	2-1 A (+1.5)
2-3 A (+0.1)	6. Dundee United	0-1 A (−0.9)
0-1 H (−0.3)	7. St Johnstone	1-2 A (−0.8)
3-1 H (+0.8)	8. St Mirren	1-1 A (−0.5)
4-0 A (+0.7)	9. Motherwell	1-2 H (+0.0)
0-0 H (−1.0)	11. Kilmarnock	0-1 H (−1.5)

Team news

Aberdeen: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Mats Knoester, Chris Cadden, Lewis Mayo, Gavin Molloy, Toyosi Olusanya, Findlay Marshall. (confirmed XI)

Hibernian: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Grant Hanley, Callum Wright, Adam Mayor, Jacob Devaney. (confirmed XI)