Scottish Premiership · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Dundee United 1-1 Motherwell

My shortlist

Dundee United v Motherwell: too close to call

The model's view

37%

28%

35%

Dundee United win 37% confidence: coin flip ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 37% / 28% / 35%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Dundee United are 6th with 16 points from 11 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Motherwell are 9th with 12 points from 12 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 10 sides both have played: Dundee United took 16 points from 10 games, Motherwell 9 from 11; on performance Dundee United were 0.4 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Dundee United are unbeaten in 6. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 6 · performance rank 4 As it looks

Points per game: 1.46 overall, 1.60 at home, 1.33 away. Points v an average side: +1.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Falkirk (H)	1-1	+0.91
19 Sept	St Mirren (A)	3-0	+0.70
10 Oct	Hibernian (H)	1-0	+0.75
17 Oct	St Johnstone (A)	1-1	−0.19
24 Oct	Aberdeen (H)	3-2	−0.65
28 Oct	Celtic (A)	2-2	+0.30

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 9 · performance rank 5 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.17 at home, 0.83 away. Points v an average side: −5.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Dundee (A)	1-2	−0.41
11 Oct	Celtic (H)	0-2	−1.24
17 Oct	Kilmarnock (A)	2-3	+0.77
25 Oct	Hearts (H)	0-2	+0.41
28 Oct	St Johnstone (A)	2-2	−0.01
31 Oct	St Mirren (H)	1-0	+1.56

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Dundee United: 16 pts from 10, performance +0.28. Motherwell: 9 pts from 11, performance −0.17.

Dundee United: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Panutche Camará, Mehdi Merghem, William Ferry, Abdoulaye Yoro. (confirmed XI)

Motherwell: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Alex Lowry. (confirmed XI)