St Johnstone 2-1 Dundee

The model's view

St Johnstone win 39% confidence: low

Early prediction: 39% / 28% / 33%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 39%.

The story

• St Johnstone are 7th with 14 points from 12 games, but on performances they rank only 12th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.2 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
• Dundee are 5th with 17 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
• Against the 10 sides both have played: St Johnstone took 13 points from 11 games, Dundee 16 from 10; on performance Dundee were 0.4 goals a game better.
• Both sides at their usual strength.

Worth knowing

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Common opponents

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Team news