Scottish Premiership · Sat 7 Nov, 20:00 Logged before kick-off

St Mirren 0-2 Rangers

My shortlist

Rangers the pick away at St Mirren

The model's view

15%

21%

65%

Rangers win 65% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 15% / 21% / 65%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 65%.

St Mirren are 8th with 14 points from 12 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.1 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Rangers are 2nd with 24 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.2 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 10 sides both have played: St Mirren took 14 points from 11 games, Rangers 21 from 10; on performance Rangers were 1.7 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Rangers are unbeaten in 9. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 8 · performance rank 11 As it looks

Points per game: 1.17 overall, 1.33 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −2.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Dundee United (H)	0-3	−1.24
10 Oct	Hearts (A)	0-5	−1.95
17 Oct	Aberdeen (A)	1-3	−1.40
24 Oct	Dundee (H)	2-1	−0.60
28 Oct	Hibernian (H)	1-1	+0.11
31 Oct	Motherwell (A)	0-1	−1.81

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 2 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 2.18 overall, 2.40 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +8.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
9 Sept	St Mirren (H)	1-0	+0.66
20 Sept	Celtic (A)	1-0	+1.77
10 Oct	Kilmarnock (H)	3-1	−0.46
17 Oct	Dundee (A)	2-2	−0.03
24 Oct	St Johnstone (H)	4-0	+3.54
28 Oct	Hearts (A)	2-2	+1.44

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

St Mirren: 14 pts from 11, performance −0.56. Rangers: 21 pts from 10, performance +1.14.

St Mirren: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Chris Mochrie, Henry Fieldson, Ryan Carr, Paul Nsio. (confirmed XI)

Rangers: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Djeidi Gassama. (confirmed XI)