Serie A · Sat 7 Nov, 14:00 Logged before kick-off

Cagliari 1-0 Frosinone

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Cagliari v Frosinone: too close to call

The model's view

33%

31%

36%

Frosinone win 36% confidence: coin flip

Early prediction: 33% / 31% / 36%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 33%.

Cagliari are 12th with 13 points from 10 games. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Frosinone are 6th with 20 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank only 13th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 3 sides both have played: Cagliari took 7 points from 3 games, Frosinone 4 from 3; on performance Cagliari were 0.6 goals a game better.
The caution: Frosinone take 1.2 points a game away, against 2.0 overall.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Cagliari have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 12 · performance rank 14 As it looks

Points per game: 1.30 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.50 away. Points v an average side: +0.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Udinese (A)	1-0	−0.91
11 Oct	Juventus (H)	1-1	−0.94
19 Oct	Monza (A)	0-4	−0.25
24 Oct	Bologna (H)	0-2	−1.30
27 Oct	Roma (A)	2-4	+0.64
1 Nov	Lazio (A)	1-2	+0.42

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 6 · performance rank 13 Flattered

Points per game: 2.00 overall, 2.50 at home, 1.25 away. Points v an average side: +6.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Como (H)	2-0	+0.59
10 Oct	Napoli (A)	0-3	−1.48
16 Oct	Sassuolo (H)	4-2	−0.21
25 Oct	Atalanta (A)	4-4	−1.56
29 Oct	Lecce (H)	5-1	+0.97
1 Nov	Torino (H)	2-0	+0.80

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Cagliari: 7 pts from 3, performance −0.07. Frosinone: 4 pts from 3, performance −0.62.

Cagliari: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Harry Winks, Yerry Mina, Adam Obert. (confirmed XI)

Frosinone: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Giorgio Cittadini, Patrizio Masini, Antonio Raimondo. (confirmed XI)