Serie A · Sat 7 Nov, 17:00 Logged before kick-off

Parma 1-2 Bologna

My shortlist

Bologna the pick away at Parma

The model's view

23%

29%

47%

Bologna win 47% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 23% / 29% / 47%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 47%.

Parma are 15th with 8 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.8 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Bologna are 9th with 14 points from 10 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Parma took 4 points from 6 games, Bologna 7 from 6; on performance Bologna were 1.2 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Signal: Parma, smash-and-grab last win (3-0 v Atalanta, despite creating less).
▼ Parma: smash-and-grab last win (3-0 v Atalanta, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Position 15 · performance rank 19 As it looks

Points per game: 0.80 overall, 1.00 at home, 0.60 away. Points v an average side: −5.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Genoa (H)	2-1	−0.63
10 Oct	Inter (A)	0-3	−0.66
19 Oct	Torino (H)	0-3	−0.38
24 Oct	Lazio (A)	1-2	−0.59
28 Oct	Udinese (H)	0-0	−0.71
2 Nov	Atalanta (A)	3-0	−2.08

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 9 · performance rank 9 As it looks

Points per game: 1.40 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.80 away. Points v an average side: +0.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Torino (H)	1-1	−0.72
11 Oct	Lecce (A)	2-1	+0.02
17 Oct	Inter (H)	1-3	−1.25
24 Oct	Cagliari (A)	2-0	+1.05
28 Oct	Milan (A)	4-2	+0.72
31 Oct	Monza (H)	2-1	−0.70

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Parma: 4 pts from 6, performance −1.04. Bologna: 7 pts from 6, performance +0.18.

Parma: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Diego Carlos, Edoardo Corvi, El Bilal Touré. (confirmed XI)

Bologna: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Roberto Piccoli, Torbjørn Heggem. (confirmed XI)