Serie A · Sat 7 Nov, 19:45 Logged before kick-off

Roma 3-0 Sassuolo

My shortlist

Roma the pick at home to Sassuolo

The model's view

76%

16%

Roma win 76% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 76% / 16% / 8%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 76%.

Roma are 3rd with 24 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 11 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Sassuolo are 17th with 8 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.1 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Roma took 10 points from 4 games, Sassuolo 3 from 4; on performance Roma were 1.7 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Roma are unbeaten in 10. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Sassuolo have gone 6 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 3 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 2.40 overall, 2.60 at home, 2.20 away. Points v an average side: +10.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Inter (H)	2-2	+0.23
11 Oct	Como (A)	0-0	+0.63
17 Oct	Genoa (H)	2-0	+0.41
24 Oct	Napoli (A)	3-3	+0.16
27 Oct	Cagliari (H)	4-2	−0.24
31 Oct	Udinese (A)	5-2	+0.89

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 17 · performance rank 18 As it looks

Points per game: 0.80 overall, 1.40 at home, 0.20 away. Points v an average side: −5.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
18 Sept	Monza (A)	1-2	−0.43
11 Oct	Milan (H)	1-1	+0.11
16 Oct	Frosinone (A)	2-4	−0.28
24 Oct	Como (A)	0-2	−0.81
27 Oct	Lazio (H)	2-6	−2.81
2 Nov	Fiorentina (H)	2-4	−2.12

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Roma: 10 pts from 4, performance +1.52. Sassuolo: 3 pts from 4, performance −0.13.

Roma: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Mile Svilar, Paulo Dybala, Gianluca Mancini, Emanuele Lulli. (confirmed XI)

Sassuolo: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Domenico Berardi, Ignace Van der Brempt, Fedde Leysen, Darryl Bakola. (confirmed XI)