Serie A · Sat 7 Nov, 14:00 Logged before kick-off

Torino 1-1 Lecce

My shortlist

Torino the pick at home to Lecce

The model's view

50%

29%

22%

Torino win 50% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 50% / 29% / 22%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 29%.

Torino are 10th with 13 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank only 15th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been about average.
Lecce are 14th with 9 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Torino took 7 points from 6 games, Lecce 6 from 6; on performance Torino were 0.8 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Warning: Lecce, unlucky last defeat (1-2 v Genoa, despite creating more).
▲ Lecce: unlucky last defeat (1-2 v Genoa, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Position 10 · performance rank 15 Flattered

Points per game: 1.30 overall, 1.20 at home, 1.40 away. Points v an average side: −0.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Bologna (A)	1-1	+0.42
12 Oct	Udinese (H)	2-1	+1.47
19 Oct	Parma (A)	3-0	−0.30
23 Oct	Monza (H)	3-2	−0.21
27 Oct	Como (H)	1-3	−0.62
1 Nov	Frosinone (A)	0-2	−1.18

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 14 · performance rank 17 As it looks

Points per game: 0.90 overall, 0.60 at home, 1.20 away. Points v an average side: −5.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Milan (A)	0-3	−1.65
11 Oct	Bologna (H)	1-2	−0.63
18 Oct	Udinese (A)	3-0	+2.99
25 Oct	Juventus (H)	0-2	+0.25
29 Oct	Frosinone (A)	1-5	−1.67
1 Nov	Genoa (H)	1-2	−0.58

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Torino: 7 pts from 6, performance −0.14. Lecce: 6 pts from 6, performance −0.89.

Torino: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Che Adams, Rolando Mandragora. (confirmed XI)

Lecce: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Lassana Coulibaly, Konan N'Dri, Ivan Ilić, Jamil Siebert. (confirmed XI)