Belgian Pro League · Sun 8 Nov, 12:30 Logged before kick-off

Club Brugge 1-1 Anderlecht

My shortlist

Club Brugge the pick at home to Anderlecht

The model's view

73%

17%

11%

Club Brugge win 73% confidence: high Shortlist

Model's expected goals: Club Brugge 3.2, Anderlecht 0.9.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 17%.

Club Brugge are 1st with 27 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 12 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 0.9 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Anderlecht are 5th with 19 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Club Brugge took 15 points from 6 games, Anderlecht 13 from 6; on performance there was little between them.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Club Brugge have won 6 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 1 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 2.70 overall, 3.00 at home, 2.40 away. Points v an average side: +12.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
4 Sept	Lommel SK (A)	1-0	+0.42
13 Sept	Antwerp (H)	3-1	+0.44
20 Sept	Genk (H)	3-0	+0.22
10 Oct	RAAL La Louviere (A)	4-1	+3.44
25 Oct	St Truiden (H)	3-2	+0.73
30 Oct	Waregem (A)	4-2	−0.13

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 5 · performance rank 4 As it looks

Points per game: 1.90 overall, 2.60 at home, 1.20 away. Points v an average side: +4.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
6 Sept	Genk (H)	0-0	+0.60
11 Sept	Mechelen (A)	1-0	−0.63
19 Sept	Waregem (H)	3-0	+1.57
10 Oct	Cercle Brugge (A)	2-1	+0.19
25 Oct	Gent (A)	0-4	+0.32
31 Oct	Westerlo (H)	4-1	+1.55

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Club Brugge: 15 pts from 6, performance +0.81. Anderlecht: 13 pts from 6, performance +0.73.

Club Brugge: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Anderlecht: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)