Belgian Pro League · Sun 8 Nov, 17:30 Logged before kick-off

St. Gilloise 1-0 Genk

My shortlist

St. Gilloise the pick at home to Genk

The model's view

70%

18%

12%

St. Gilloise win 70% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 70% / 18% / 12%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 70%.

St. Gilloise are 3rd with 26 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 11 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Genk are 7th with 15 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank 1st: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: St. Gilloise took 13 points from 5 games, Genk 8 from 5; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

St. Gilloise are unbeaten in 10. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 3 · performance rank 5 As it looks

Points per game: 2.60 overall, 2.20 at home, 3.00 away. Points v an average side: +11.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Charleroi (A)	3-2	−0.41
12 Sept	Lommel SK (H)	5-0	+2.41
20 Sept	Antwerp (A)	2-0	+3.06
11 Oct	Oud-Heverlee Leuven (H)	1-1	−0.88
25 Oct	Cercle Brugge (H)	5-2	+0.15
31 Oct	Beveren (A)	2-1	−0.67

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 7 · performance rank 1 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.50 overall, 2.60 at home, 0.40 away. Points v an average side: +0.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
6 Sept	Anderlecht (A)	0-0	−0.23
13 Sept	Gent (H)	1-1	+0.06
20 Sept	Club Brugge (A)	0-3	+1.86
10 Oct	Kortrijk (H)	3-0	+0.12
25 Oct	Standard (H)	2-1	+1.55
31 Oct	Mechelen (A)	0-1	+1.13

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

St. Gilloise: 13 pts from 5, performance +0.59. Genk: 8 pts from 5, performance +0.66.

St. Gilloise: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Mateo Biondic, Nohim Chibani, Relebohile Mofokeng. (confirmed XI)

Genk: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Junya Ito, Jeppe Erenbjerg, Noah Adedeji-Sternberg. (confirmed XI)