Belgian Pro League · Sun 8 Nov, 18:15 Logged before kick-off

St Truiden 4-1 Waregem

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St Truiden the pick at home to Waregem

The model's view

49%

26%

24%

St Truiden win 49% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 49% / 26% / 24%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 49%.

St Truiden are 16th with 8 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank 7th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Waregem are 12th with 11 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: St Truiden took 3 points from 5 games, Waregem 5 from 5; on performance Waregem were 0.4 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Signal: St Truiden, unlucky last defeat (1-2 v Oud-Heverlee Leuven, despite creating more).
▲ St Truiden: unlucky last defeat (1-2 v Oud-Heverlee Leuven, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

St Truiden have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Waregem have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 16 · performance rank 7 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.80 overall, 0.80 at home, 0.80 away. Points v an average side: −6.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	RAAL La Louviere (H)	4-0	+1.18
12 Sept	Beveren (A)	0-2	−1.96
20 Sept	Westerlo (H)	0-2	−0.37
11 Oct	Mechelen (A)	3-4	+0.44
25 Oct	Club Brugge (A)	2-3	+1.38
1 Nov	Oud-Heverlee Leuven (H)	1-2	+1.44

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 12 · performance rank 8 As it looks

Points per game: 1.10 overall, 1.20 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −2.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
6 Sept	Kortrijk (A)	2-0	+0.20
13 Sept	Charleroi (H)	0-1	−0.58
19 Sept	Anderlecht (A)	0-3	−1.30
10 Oct	Gent (H)	0-2	−0.71
24 Oct	RAAL La Louviere (A)	0-3	−1.15
30 Oct	Club Brugge (H)	2-4	+1.47

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

St Truiden: 3 pts from 5, performance −0.10. Waregem: 5 pts from 5, performance +0.27.

St Truiden: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ryotaro Araki, Taiga Hata, Ryan Merlen, Kota Takai, Kaito Matsuzawa. (confirmed XI)

Waregem: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Laurent Lemoine, Ousseynou Niang. (confirmed XI)