FC Koln 1-2 Leverkusen

The model's view

Leverkusen win 46% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 27% / 27% / 46%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 46%.

The story

• FC Koln are 15th with 9 points from 8 games, but on performances they rank 9th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
• Leverkusen are 6th with 13 points from 8 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
• Against the 3 sides both have played: FC Koln took 4 points from 3 games, Leverkusen 3 from 3; on performance FC Koln were 0.5 goals a game better.
• The caution: Leverkusen take 1.0 points a game away, against 1.6 overall.
• Both sides at their usual strength.

Worth knowing

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Common opponents

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Team news