Freiburg 2-0 Union Berlin

The model's view

Freiburg win 59% confidence: medium ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 59% / 23% / 18%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 59%.

The story

• Freiburg are 4th with 16 points from 8 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
• Union Berlin are 16th with 7 points from 8 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
• Against the 5 sides both have played: Freiburg took 7 points from 5 games, Union Berlin 2 from 5; on performance Freiburg were 1.4 goals a game better.
• Both sides at their usual strength.
• Warning: Freiburg, smash-and-grab last win (2-1 v Augsburg, despite creating less).
• ▼ Freiburg: smash-and-grab last win (2-1 v Augsburg, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Worth knowing

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Common opponents

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Team news