Bundesliga · Sun 8 Nov, 18:30 Logged before kick-off

Hoffenheim 2-1 Schalke 04

My shortlist

Hoffenheim the pick at home to Schalke 04

The model's view

65%

21%

14%

Hoffenheim win 65% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 65% / 21% / 14%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 65%.

Hoffenheim are 14th with 9 points from 8 games, but on performances they rank 3rd: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Schalke 04 are 17th with 6 points from 8 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.9 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Schalke 04 have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 14 · performance rank 3 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.13 overall, 1.50 at home, 0.75 away. Points v an average side: −2.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Stuttgart (H)	2-1	+0.85
20 Sept	Paderborn (A)	1-3	+0.40
10 Oct	Hamburg (H)	2-3	−1.08
18 Oct	M'gladbach (A)	2-1	+1.21
25 Oct	Leverkusen (H)	3-0	+3.14
31 Oct	Werder Bremen (A)	0-2	−0.06

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 17 · performance rank 18 As it looks

Points per game: 0.75 overall, 0.50 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −4.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
11 Sept	Union Berlin (A)	3-1	+0.60
20 Sept	Elversberg (H)	0-0	−0.50
11 Oct	Freiburg (A)	1-2	−0.38
17 Oct	Mainz (H)	0-1	−1.80
24 Oct	FC Koln (A)	0-0	−0.56
31 Oct	RB Leipzig (H)	0-2	−3.03

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Hoffenheim: 0 pts from 1, performance −0.07. Schalke 04: 1 pts from 1, performance −0.56.

Hoffenheim	Opponent	Schalke 04
2-3 A (−0.1)	15. FC Koln	0-0 A (−0.6)

Hoffenheim: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Adam Hložek, Bambasé Conté, Adam Daghim. (confirmed XI)

Schalke 04: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Timo Becker. (confirmed XI)