Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 15:45 Logged before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar 4-3 Groningen

My shortlist

AZ Alkmaar the pick at home to Groningen

The model's view

49%

27%

25%

AZ Alkmaar win 49% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 49% / 27% / 25%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 49%.

AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 20 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Groningen are 9th with 15 points from 11 games. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: AZ Alkmaar took 12 points from 6 games, Groningen 8 from 6; on performance AZ Alkmaar were 1.6 goals a game better.
Signal: AZ Alkmaar, unlucky last defeat (0-1 v Ajax, despite creating more).
Warning: Groningen, unlucky last defeat (2-3 v Sparta Rotterdam, despite creating more).
▲ AZ Alkmaar: unlucky last defeat (0-1 v Ajax, despite creating more) [tested signal]
▲ Groningen: unlucky last defeat (2-3 v Sparta Rotterdam, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Position 5 · performance rank 5 As it looks

Points per game: 1.82 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.67 away. Points v an average side: +4.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
11 Sept	Willem II (H)	1-1	+0.15
20 Sept	Telstar (H)	1-0	+2.00
10 Oct	Feyenoord (A)	0-2	+0.51
18 Oct	Cambuur (A)	2-2	−0.85
25 Oct	Twente (H)	0-2	−0.22
31 Oct	Ajax (A)	0-1	+2.07

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 9 · performance rank 9 As it looks

Points per game: 1.36 overall, 1.17 at home, 1.60 away. Points v an average side: +0.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Go Ahead Eagles (A)	1-1	−1.45
18 Sept	Zwolle (H)	3-0	−0.45
11 Oct	Excelsior (A)	5-1	+1.43
18 Oct	Ajax (H)	2-5	−0.11
25 Oct	Nijmegen (A)	2-2	+0.32
1 Nov	Sparta Rotterdam (H)	2-3	−1.20

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

AZ Alkmaar: 12 pts from 6, performance +1.41. Groningen: 8 pts from 6, performance −0.19.

AZ Alkmaar: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Calvin Stengs, Jordy Clasie, Lewis Schouten. (confirmed XI)

Groningen: (confirmed XI)