Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 15:45 Logged before kick-off

Cambuur 2-5 PSV Eindhoven

My shortlist

PSV Eindhoven the pick away at Cambuur

The model's view

12%

18%

70%

PSV Eindhoven win 70% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 12% / 18% / 70%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 70%.

Cambuur are 10th with 15 points from 11 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
PSV Eindhoven are 3rd with 23 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Cambuur took 4 points from 6 games, PSV Eindhoven 8 from 6; on performance PSV Eindhoven were 1.4 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Cambuur are unbeaten in 7. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 10 · performance rank 12 As it looks

Points per game: 1.36 overall, 1.17 at home, 1.60 away. Points v an average side: −0.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Nijmegen (H)	3-0	+2.38
19 Sept	Den Haag (A)	1-1	−2.58
11 Oct	Zwolle (A)	1-0	−0.92
18 Oct	AZ Alkmaar (H)	2-2	+0.25
24 Oct	Willem II (A)	6-1	−0.01
31 Oct	Go Ahead Eagles (H)	4-0	+0.45

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 3 · performance rank 4 As it looks

Points per game: 2.09 overall, 2.33 at home, 1.80 away. Points v an average side: +7.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Sparta Rotterdam (H)	4-1	+0.72
20 Sept	Twente (A)	2-3	−0.45
9 Oct	Heerenveen (H)	2-0	−0.06
17 Oct	Den Haag (A)	1-2	−1.32
25 Oct	Feyenoord (H)	1-1	+1.90
31 Oct	Willem II (H)	7-0	−0.49

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Cambuur: 4 pts from 6, performance −1.03. PSV Eindhoven: 8 pts from 6, performance +0.38.

Cambuur: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Jamal Amofa, Sami Bouhoudane, Fabian Kvam. (confirmed XI)

PSV Eindhoven: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ivan Perišić. (confirmed XI)