Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 11:15 Logged before kick-off

Heerenveen 5-3 Feyenoord

My shortlist

Feyenoord the pick away at Heerenveen

The model's view

28%

45%

Feyenoord win 45% confidence: low

Early prediction: 28% / 28% / 45%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Heerenveen are 7th with 18 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Feyenoord are 1st with 25 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 2.0 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Heerenveen took 10 points from 7 games, Feyenoord 17 from 7; on performance Feyenoord were 1.5 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Feyenoord are unbeaten in 11. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 7 · performance rank 7 As it looks

Points per game: 1.64 overall, 1.67 at home, 1.60 away. Points v an average side: +2.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Telstar (H)	0-0	+0.26
19 Sept	Sparta Rotterdam (A)	4-0	+0.99
9 Oct	PSV Eindhoven (A)	0-2	+2.69
16 Oct	Excelsior (H)	4-0	+1.19
24 Oct	Den Haag (A)	3-2	−1.14
31 Oct	Nijmegen (H)	1-0	+0.02

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 1 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 2.27 overall, 1.80 at home, 2.67 away. Points v an average side: +9.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Zwolle (A)	7-0	+2.77
20 Sept	Utrecht (H)	5-0	+2.79
10 Oct	AZ Alkmaar (H)	2-0	+1.53
17 Oct	Telstar (A)	4-3	+2.41
25 Oct	PSV Eindhoven (A)	1-1	+1.45
31 Oct	For Sittard (H)	1-1	+1.07

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Heerenveen: 10 pts from 7, performance +0.26. Feyenoord: 17 pts from 7, performance +1.76.

Heerenveen: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ringo Meerveld, Dirk Wanner Proper. (confirmed XI)

Feyenoord: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Jeremiah St Juste. (confirmed XI)