Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 13:30 Logged before kick-off

Twente 2-2 Ajax

My shortlist

Twente the pick at home to Ajax

The model's view

45%

28%

Twente win 45% confidence: low

Early prediction: 45% / 28% / 28%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Twente are 4th with 23 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.9 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Ajax are 2nd with 24 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Twente took 17 points from 8 games, Ajax 17 from 8; on performance Twente were 0.8 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Signal: Ajax, smash-and-grab last win (1-0 v AZ Alkmaar, despite creating less).
▼ Ajax: smash-and-grab last win (1-0 v AZ Alkmaar, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Ajax are unbeaten in 7. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 4 · performance rank 1 As it looks

Points per game: 2.09 overall, 2.40 at home, 1.83 away. Points v an average side: +7.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Den Haag (H)	2-0	+0.58
20 Sept	PSV Eindhoven (H)	3-2	+3.25
10 Oct	For Sittard (A)	1-1	+0.22
18 Oct	Utrecht (H)	1-2	−0.23
25 Oct	AZ Alkmaar (A)	2-0	+1.28
1 Nov	Excelsior (A)	9-0	+6.25

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 2 · performance rank 3 As it looks

Points per game: 2.18 overall, 1.50 at home, 3.00 away. Points v an average side: +9.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Sept	Willem II (H)	5-1	+0.96
19 Sept	Excelsior (H)	2-2	+1.29
10 Oct	Nijmegen (H)	1-1	+0.63
18 Oct	Groningen (A)	5-2	+1.49
25 Oct	Sparta Rotterdam (A)	2-1	−0.13
31 Oct	AZ Alkmaar (H)	1-0	−0.45

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Twente: 17 pts from 8, performance +1.95. Ajax: 17 pts from 8, performance +1.19.

Twente: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Lars Unnerstall, Max Bruns. (confirmed XI)

Ajax: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Thilo Kehrer, Julian Brandt, Caio Henrique, Steven Berghuis, Anton Gaaei. (confirmed XI)