Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 19:00 Logged before kick-off

Utrecht 2-3 Nijmegen

My shortlist

Utrecht v Nijmegen: too close to call

The model's view

37%

28%

34%

Utrecht win 37% confidence: coin flip

Early prediction: 37% / 28% / 34%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 34%.

Utrecht are 13th with 12 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Nijmegen are 14th with 11 points from 11 games, but on performances they rank 8th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Utrecht took 8 points from 7 games, Nijmegen 9 from 7; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Nijmegen have gone 8 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 13 · performance rank 11 As it looks

Points per game: 1.09 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.17 away. Points v an average side: −2.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Excelsior (A)	2-1	+1.28
20 Sept	Feyenoord (A)	0-5	−1.50
11 Oct	Willem II (H)	3-1	−0.72
18 Oct	Twente (A)	2-1	+0.92
24 Oct	Zwolle (H)	1-1	−0.62
1 Nov	Telstar (A)	2-4	−1.19

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 14 · performance rank 8 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 0.67 at home, 1.40 away. Points v an average side: −4.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Cambuur (A)	0-3	−3.55
20 Sept	Go Ahead Eagles (H)	1-1	−1.95
10 Oct	Ajax (A)	1-1	+0.65
18 Oct	For Sittard (H)	2-2	+1.89
25 Oct	Groningen (H)	2-2	+0.00
31 Oct	Heerenveen (A)	0-1	+0.49

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Utrecht: 8 pts from 7, performance −0.16. Nijmegen: 9 pts from 7, performance −0.24.

Utrecht: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Arthur Zagre, Siebe Horemans, Davy van den Berg. (confirmed XI)

Nijmegen: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Tobias Storm, Adam Tahaui. (confirmed XI)