La Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 20:00 Logged before kick-off

Ath Madrid 1-2 Barcelona

My shortlist

Barcelona the pick away at Ath Madrid

The model's view

28%

29%

43%

Barcelona win 43% confidence: low

Early prediction: 28% / 29% / 43%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 43%.

Ath Madrid are 3rd with 28 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 14 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.1 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Barcelona are 1st with 30 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 14 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 2.1 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Ath Madrid took 12 points from 5 games, Barcelona 12 from 5; on performance Barcelona were 1.0 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Ath Madrid have won 7 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 3 · performance rank 4 As it looks

Points per game: 2.54 overall, 2.60 at home, 2.50 away. Points v an average side: +13.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
16 Sept	Osasuna (H)	4-0	+3.06
20 Sept	Real Madrid (H)	2-1	+2.79
10 Oct	Alaves (A)	2-1	+1.11
17 Oct	Espanol (A)	1-0	+1.01
24 Oct	La Coruna (H)	1-0	−0.95
31 Oct	Levante (A)	2-0	−0.41

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 1 · performance rank 1 As it looks

Points per game: 2.73 overall, 2.50 at home, 3.00 away. Points v an average side: +14.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
16 Sept	Santander (H)	7-2	+3.49
19 Sept	Sevilla (A)	3-1	+3.10
10 Oct	Getafe (H)	3-0	+1.26
17 Oct	Betis (A)	5-2	+2.57
25 Oct	Real Madrid (H)	1-2	−0.09
31 Oct	Alaves (H)	6-1	+2.16

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Ath Madrid: 12 pts from 5, performance +0.77. Barcelona: 12 pts from 5, performance +1.77.

Ath Madrid: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman, Cristian Romero, Johnny Cardoso. (confirmed XI)

Barcelona: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Rodri, Eric García, Xavi Espart. (confirmed XI)