La Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 17:30 Logged before kick-off

Celta 0-0 Levante

My shortlist

Celta the pick at home to Levante

The model's view

48%

27%

24%

Celta win 48% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 48% / 27% / 24%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 27%.

Celta are 11th with 12 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Levante are 18th with 10 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.8 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Celta took 3 points from 5 games, Levante 8 from 5; on performance Levante were 1.0 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 11 · performance rank 12 As it looks

Points per game: 1.09 overall, 1.33 at home, 0.80 away. Points v an average side: −4.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Malaga (H)	1-1	+0.73
19 Sept	Santander (H)	5-0	+0.19
11 Oct	Elche (A)	0-0	−0.15
18 Oct	Alaves (H)	2-1	−0.44
25 Oct	Betis (H)	0-0	−0.54
31 Oct	Vallecano (A)	0-3	+0.64

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 18 · performance rank 16 As it looks

Points per game: 0.91 overall, 1.40 at home, 0.50 away. Points v an average side: −3.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Villarreal (A)	1-3	−3.02
12 Oct	Sevilla (H)	3-3	−0.98
16 Oct	La Coruna (A)	1-1	−0.22
21 Oct	Ath Bilbao (H)	3-1	−0.19
25 Oct	Sociedad (A)	1-2	−1.39
31 Oct	Ath Madrid (H)	0-2	+0.92

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Celta: 3 pts from 5, performance −1.10. Levante: 8 pts from 5, performance −0.14.

Celta: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ferrán Jutglà, Hugo González, Hugo Álvarez, Yoel Lago. (confirmed XI)

Levante: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Adrián de la Fuente, Manuel Sánchez, Oriol Rey, Iván Romero. (confirmed XI)