La Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 13:00 Logged before kick-off

Elche 0-2 Betis

My shortlist

Elche v Betis: too close to call

The model's view

36%

29%

35%

Elche win 36% confidence: coin flip

Early prediction: 36% / 29% / 35%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 35%.

Elche are 17th with 10 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Betis are 4th with 23 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Elche took 3 points from 7 games, Betis 14 from 7; on performance Betis were 0.4 goals a game better.
The caution: Elche take 0.2 points a game at home, against 0.9 overall.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 17 · performance rank 13 As it looks

Points per game: 0.91 overall, 0.20 at home, 1.50 away. Points v an average side: −4.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Sept	Real Madrid (H)	2-3	−2.08
18 Sept	Espanol (A)	3-1	+0.52
11 Oct	Celta (H)	0-0	+0.04
17 Oct	Villarreal (A)	0-0	−1.22
24 Oct	Vallecano (A)	3-0	+1.46
1 Nov	Valencia (H)	0-1	−0.28

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 4 · performance rank 7 As it looks

Points per game: 2.09 overall, 2.50 at home, 1.60 away. Points v an average side: +8.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
17 Sept	Getafe (H)	1-0	+0.70
20 Sept	La Coruna (A)	1-1	−1.33
11 Oct	Osasuna (H)	5-2	+0.41
17 Oct	Barcelona (H)	2-5	−0.83
25 Oct	Celta (A)	0-0	+0.73
31 Oct	Malaga (H)	2-1	−0.24

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Elche: 3 pts from 7, performance −0.56. Betis: 14 pts from 7, performance −0.20.

Elche: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Gonzalo Villar, Tete Morente, Buba Sangaré. (confirmed XI)

Betis: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Diego Llorente, Cucho Hernández, Nelson Deossa, Valentín Gómez. (confirmed XI)