La Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 15:15 Logged before kick-off

Sociedad 1-0 Vallecano

My shortlist

Sociedad the pick at home to Vallecano

The model's view

45%

28%

27%

Sociedad win 45% confidence: low

Early prediction: 45% / 28% / 27%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 45%.

Sociedad are 5th with 19 points from 11 games, but on performances they rank only 11th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Vallecano are 14th with 12 points from 10 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Sociedad took 7 points from 4 games, Vallecano 6 from 4; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 5 · performance rank 11 Flattered

Points per game: 1.73 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.50 away. Points v an average side: +4.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Ath Madrid (H)	0-3	−1.79
20 Sept	Valencia (A)	3-2	+1.22
11 Oct	La Coruna (H)	3-2	−1.40
18 Oct	Malaga (A)	5-2	+0.98
25 Oct	Levante (H)	2-1	+1.22
1 Nov	Ath Bilbao (A)	1-2	−1.45

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 14 · performance rank 10 As it looks

Points per game: 1.20 overall, 2.00 at home, 0.40 away. Points v an average side: −1.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Real Madrid (A)	1-4	+0.10
15 Sept	Espanol (H)	2-1	−0.54
19 Sept	Osasuna (A)	1-1	+0.65
19 Oct	Getafe (A)	1-1	+1.51
24 Oct	Elche (H)	0-3	−1.55
31 Oct	Celta (H)	3-0	−0.59

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Sociedad: 7 pts from 4, performance −0.63. Vallecano: 6 pts from 4, performance −0.65.

Sociedad: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Sergio Gómez, Gonçalo Guedes, Mikel Oyarzabal, Mamadou Sarr, Jon Gorrotxategi. (confirmed XI)

Vallecano: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Óscar Valentín, Álvaro García. (confirmed XI)