Villarreal 2-0 Getafe

The model's view

Villarreal win 68% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 68% / 20% / 13%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 68%.

The story

• Villarreal are 12th with 12 points from 11 games, but on performances they rank 3rd: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.4 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
• Getafe are 15th with 12 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
• Against the 5 sides both have played: Villarreal took 4 points from 5 games, Getafe 7 from 5; on performance Villarreal were 0.8 goals a game better.
• Both sides at their usual strength.

Worth knowing

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Common opponents

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Team news