Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 16:15 Logged before kick-off

Angers 0-2 Nice

My shortlist

Nice the pick away at Angers

The model's view

25%

29%

46%

Nice win 46% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 25% / 29% / 46%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 46%.

Angers are 15th with 8 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.9 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Nice are 8th with 14 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank only 14th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Angers took 4 points from 6 games, Nice 10 from 6; on performance there was little between them.
The caution: Nice take 0.8 points a game away, against 1.6 overall.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 15 · performance rank 15 As it looks

Points per game: 0.89 overall, 0.80 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −4.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Le Havre (A)	0-0	−0.83
19 Sept	Troyes (H)	2-0	+0.05
10 Oct	Brest (A)	1-5	−2.36
18 Oct	Marseille (H)	2-5	−0.43
25 Oct	Lorient (H)	0-0	−0.59
1 Nov	Lyon (A)	0-2	−1.09

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 8 · performance rank 14 Flattered

Points per game: 1.56 overall, 2.20 at home, 0.75 away. Points v an average side: +1.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Auxerre (A)	0-1	−0.72
20 Sept	Lille (H)	2-1	−0.10
11 Oct	Strasbourg (H)	2-1	+0.42
18 Oct	Lyon (A)	1-2	+0.61
23 Oct	Brest (A)	2-1	−1.82
30 Oct	Rennes (H)	5-2	+0.82

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Angers: 4 pts from 6, performance −0.43. Nice: 10 pts from 6, performance −0.28.

Angers: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Amine El Ouazzani. (confirmed XI)

Nice: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Axel Witsel, Gauthier Hein, Xavier Mandza. (confirmed XI)