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13 leagues · every game priced · no bookmaker odds

Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 16:15 Logged before kick-off

Brest 2-0 Lyon

My shortlist

Lyon the pick away at Brest

The model's view

Lyon win 38% confidence: low

Early prediction: 32% / 30% / 38%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 32%.

The story

Brest

Position 11 · performance rank 3 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.33 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.60 away. Points v an average side: −0.6.

DateOpponentScorePerf.
13 SeptParis SG (H)0-1+0.81
20 SeptAuxerre (A)1-2−0.64
10 OctAngers (H)5-1+1.61
17 OctLille (A)1-1−0.80
23 OctNice (H)1-2+1.54
2 NovLorient (A)2-0−0.27

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Lyon

Position 4 · performance rank 4 As it looks

Points per game: 1.89 overall, 2.60 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: +4.8.

DateOpponentScorePerf.
12 SeptParis FC (A)0-0+0.51
19 SeptRennes (H)4-0+1.79
9 OctLens (A)1-2+0.48
18 OctNice (H)2-1−0.52
26 OctParis SG (A)0-2+0.98
1 NovAngers (H)2-0+0.66

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Common opponents

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Brest: 7 pts from 6, performance +0.84. Lyon: 13 pts from 6, performance +0.27.

BrestOpponentLyon
0-1 H (+0.8)1. Paris SG0-2 A (+1.0)
1-2 H (+1.5)8. Nice2-1 H (−0.5)
2-2 H (+1.5)10. Toulouse2-0 A (−1.7)
1-2 A (−0.6)14. Auxerre3-1 H (+1.6)
5-1 H (+1.6)15. Angers2-0 H (+0.7)
2-1 A (+0.3)18. Le Havre1-1 H (+0.6)

Team news

Brest: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Pathé Mboup, Raphaël Le Guen. (confirmed XI)

Lyon: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Loïs Openda, Felix Bacher, Abner Vinícius, Pavel Šulc, Mads Bidstrup, Tyler Morton, Ernest Nuamah. (confirmed XI)