Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 16:15 Logged before kick-off

Le Havre 0-2 Lorient

My shortlist

Le Havre v Lorient: too close to call

The model's view

35%

31%

35%

Le Havre win 35% confidence: coin flip

Early prediction: 35% / 31% / 35%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 35%.

Le Havre are 18th with 2 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank 11th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 10 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Lorient are 12th with 12 points from 9 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Le Havre took 1 points from 4 games, Lorient 5 from 4; on performance Lorient were 0.3 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Le Havre have gone 9 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 18 · performance rank 11 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.22 overall, 0.20 at home, 0.25 away. Points v an average side: −9.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Angers (H)	0-0	−0.13
19 Sept	Toulouse (A)	2-3	+0.63
10 Oct	Lille (A)	0-1	+0.73
18 Oct	Auxerre (H)	1-3	−1.85
25 Oct	Marseille (A)	3-4	+2.17
30 Oct	Paris SG (H)	1-5	−1.17

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 12 · performance rank 8 As it looks

Points per game: 1.33 overall, 1.40 at home, 1.25 away. Points v an average side: −1.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Toulouse (H)	2-2	−0.86
19 Sept	Le Mans (A)	1-2	−0.27
10 Oct	Paris FC (H)	1-0	−0.48
18 Oct	Monaco (H)	1-0	+1.23
25 Oct	Angers (A)	0-0	−0.28
2 Nov	Brest (H)	0-2	+0.05

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Le Havre: 1 pts from 4, performance −0.28. Lorient: 5 pts from 4, performance +0.04.

Le Havre: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Gauthier Gallon, Ayumu Seko, Rassoul Ndiaye, Amir Richardson, Elias Jelert. (confirmed XI)

Lorient: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ibrahima Baldé, Panos Katseris. (confirmed XI)