Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 16:15 Logged before kick-off

Le Mans 1-1 Monaco

My shortlist

Monaco the pick away at Le Mans

The model's view

20%

27%

54%

Monaco win 54% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 20% / 27% / 54%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 27%.

Le Mans are 17th with 7 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Monaco are 7th with 15 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Le Mans took 4 points from 4 games, Monaco 7 from 4; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 17 · performance rank 17 As it looks

Points per game: 0.78 overall, 1.25 at home, 0.40 away. Points v an average side: −5.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Lens (H)	2-2	+1.29
19 Sept	Lorient (H)	2-1	−0.32
10 Oct	Paris SG (A)	1-3	−1.60
16 Oct	Toulouse (H)	0-3	−1.03
25 Oct	Auxerre (A)	1-1	+0.04
31 Oct	Troyes (A)	0-2	−2.43

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 7 · performance rank 7 As it looks

Points per game: 1.67 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.40 away. Points v an average side: +4.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Strasbourg (A)	1-1	+0.43
18 Sept	Lens (H)	2-1	+0.68
10 Oct	Toulouse (H)	2-2	−0.45
18 Oct	Lorient (A)	0-1	−0.96
25 Oct	Lille (H)	1-1	+1.75
1 Nov	Paris FC (A)	1-3	−1.09

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Le Mans: 4 pts from 4, performance −0.42. Monaco: 7 pts from 4, performance −0.34.

Le Mans: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Noa Boissé, Adil Bourabaa. (confirmed XI)

Monaco: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Paris Brunner. (confirmed XI)