Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 19:45 Logged before kick-off

Lens 1-2 Marseille

My shortlist

Lens the pick at home to Marseille

The model's view

47%

29%

24%

Lens win 47% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 47% / 29% / 24%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 24%.

The story

Lens are 9th with 13 points from 9 games. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Marseille are 6th with 15 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank only 18th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.0 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Lens took 6 points from 4 games, Marseille 6 from 4; on performance Lens were 0.7 goals a game better.
In their favour: Lens take 2.2 points a game at home.
Lens look slightly weaker than usual (missing Odsonne Édouard, Ruben Aguilar, Michaël Cuisance).
Signal: Marseille, smash-and-grab last win (2-0 v Toulouse, despite creating less).
▼ Marseille: smash-and-grab last win (2-0 v Toulouse, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Worth knowing

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Marseille have won 4 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Lens

Position 9 · performance rank 6 As it looks

Points per game: 1.44 overall, 2.25 at home, 0.80 away. Points v an average side: +0.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Le Mans (A)	2-2	−1.31
18 Sept	Monaco (A)	1-2	+0.14
9 Oct	Lyon (H)	2-1	+0.54
17 Oct	Troyes (A)	3-1	−0.49
24 Oct	Paris FC (H)	2-1	+0.56
30 Oct	Lille (A)	0-1	−0.88

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Marseille

Position 6 · performance rank 18 Flattered

Points per game: 1.67 overall, 1.80 at home, 1.50 away. Points v an average side: +2.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
11 Sept	Rennes (A)	0-1	−0.03
20 Sept	Paris SG (H)	1-2	−2.40
11 Oct	Troyes (A)	2-0	−0.48
18 Oct	Angers (A)	5-2	−0.01
25 Oct	Le Havre (H)	4-3	−2.07
1 Nov	Toulouse (H)	2-0	−0.75

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Common opponents

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Lens: 6 pts from 4, performance +0.42. Marseille: 6 pts from 4, performance −0.28.

Lens	Opponent	Marseille
2-1 H (+0.6)	2. Paris FC	2-3 H (−2.0)
1-2 A (+0.1)	7. Monaco	0-2 A (+0.2)
1-2 A (+1.5)	13. Strasbourg	4-0 H (+1.2)
3-1 A (−0.5)	16. Troyes	2-0 A (−0.5)

Team news

Lens: Slightly weaker than usual. Missing regulars: Odsonne Édouard, Ruben Aguilar, Michaël Cuisance, Michał Skóraś, Abdallah Sima, Ismaelo Ganiou, Kyllian Antonio. (confirmed XI)

Marseille: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Angel Gomes, Emerson. (confirmed XI)