Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Logged before kick-off

Rennes 1-2 Lille

My shortlist

Rennes v Lille: too close to call

The model's view

35%

31%

35%

Rennes win 35% confidence: coin flip

Early prediction: 35% / 31% / 35%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 35%.

Rennes are 5th with 16 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank only 13th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Lille are 3rd with 18 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank only 9th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 3 sides both have played: Rennes took 4 points from 3 games, Lille 4 from 3; on performance Lille were 0.5 goals a game better.
In their favour: Rennes take 2.6 points a game at home.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 5 · performance rank 13 Flattered

Points per game: 1.78 overall, 2.60 at home, 0.75 away. Points v an average side: +3.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
11 Sept	Marseille (H)	1-0	+0.73
19 Sept	Lyon (A)	0-4	−1.31
11 Oct	Auxerre (H)	4-1	+0.32
18 Oct	Paris FC (A)	3-4	+0.08
25 Oct	Strasbourg (H)	3-0	+0.79
30 Oct	Nice (A)	2-5	−0.84

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 3 · performance rank 9 Flattered

Points per game: 2.00 overall, 2.20 at home, 1.75 away. Points v an average side: +5.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Troyes (H)	2-0	−0.07
20 Sept	Nice (A)	1-2	+0.20
10 Oct	Le Havre (H)	1-0	−0.59
17 Oct	Brest (H)	1-1	+1.01
25 Oct	Monaco (A)	1-1	−1.07
30 Oct	Lens (H)	1-0	+1.68

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Rennes: 4 pts from 3, performance −0.66. Lille: 4 pts from 3, performance −0.15.

Rennes: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Przemysław Frankowski, Ludovic Blas, Anthony Rouault, Issa Soumaré, Esteban Lepaul. (confirmed XI)

Lille: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Olivier Giroud, Romain Perraud, Dilane Bakwa, Tiago Santos. (confirmed XI)