Premier League · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Logged before kick-off

Brighton 2-0 Brentford

My shortlist

Brighton the pick at home to Brentford

The model's view

59%

22%

18%

Brighton win 59% confidence: medium ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 56% / 25% / 19%; re-priced when the line-ups came out.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 59%.

Brighton are 3rd with 19 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Brentford are 7th with 14 points from 9 games. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Brighton took 7 points from 5 games, Brentford 6 from 5; on performance Brighton were 0.7 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Warning: Brighton, smash-and-grab last win (1-0 v Man City, despite creating less).
▼ Brighton: smash-and-grab last win (1-0 v Man City, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Position 3 · performance rank 4 As it looks

Points per game: 2.11 overall, 2.50 at home, 1.80 away. Points v an average side: +7.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Coventry (A)	5-0	+1.23
19 Sept	Arsenal (H)	3-0	+0.18
10 Oct	Sunderland (A)	2-0	+0.56
18 Oct	Crystal Palace (H)	5-0	+0.95
25 Oct	Liverpool (A)	0-2	+0.58
31 Oct	Man City (A)	1-0	+0.22

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 7 · performance rank 11 As it looks

Points per game: 1.56 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: +1.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Bournemouth (A)	2-2	−0.90
18 Sept	Chelsea (H)	3-0	+1.71
10 Oct	Aston Villa (A)	2-2	−1.08
17 Oct	Liverpool (H)	1-2	−0.70
25 Oct	Hull (A)	1-1	−0.42
31 Oct	Nott'm Forest (H)	2-0	−0.55

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Brighton: 7 pts from 5, performance +0.57. Brentford: 6 pts from 5, performance −0.13.

Brighton: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ferdi Kadıoğlu. (confirmed XI)

Brentford: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Jaidon Anthony, Yehor Yarmoliuk. (confirmed XI)