Premier League · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Logged before kick-off

Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool

My shortlist

Liverpool the pick away at Crystal Palace

The model's view

22%

24%

54%

Liverpool win 54% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 22% / 26% / 52%; re-priced when the line-ups came out.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 54%.

Crystal Palace are 19th with 7 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.1 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Liverpool are 6th with 15 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Crystal Palace took 6 points from 6 games, Liverpool 9 from 6; on performance Liverpool were 1.1 goals a game better.
In their favour: Liverpool take 2.5 points a game away.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 19 · performance rank 20 As it looks

Points per game: 0.78 overall, 0.75 at home, 0.80 away. Points v an average side: −4.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Ipswich (H)	2-3	−1.74
20 Sept	Leeds (A)	0-0	−0.03
11 Oct	Nott'm Forest (H)	3-1	−1.06
18 Oct	Brighton (A)	0-5	−0.69
25 Oct	Newcastle (H)	0-2	+0.37
31 Oct	Tottenham (A)	0-2	−3.28

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 6 · performance rank 6 As it looks

Points per game: 1.67 overall, 1.00 at home, 2.50 away. Points v an average side: +4.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Fulham (H)	0-0	+0.36
20 Sept	Bournemouth (A)	1-0	+1.23
11 Oct	Man City (H)	0-3	+0.15
17 Oct	Brentford (A)	2-1	+0.99
25 Oct	Brighton (H)	2-0	+0.15
1 Nov	Arsenal (H)	0-1	+0.52

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Crystal Palace: 6 pts from 6, performance −0.88. Liverpool: 9 pts from 6, performance +0.21.

Crystal Palace: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Walter Benítez, Anan Khalaili, Jaydee Canvot. (confirmed XI)

Liverpool: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ryan Gravenberch, Víctor Muñoz. (confirmed XI)