Premier League · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Logged before kick-off

Ipswich 1-2 Bournemouth

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Bournemouth the pick away at Ipswich

The model's view

24%

25%

51%

Bournemouth win 51% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 21% / 26% / 53%; re-priced when the line-ups came out.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 51%.

Ipswich are 14th with 11 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank only 19th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Bournemouth are 9th with 12 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank 1st: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.1 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Ipswich took 3 points from 5 games, Bournemouth 7 from 5; on performance Bournemouth were 1.3 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 14 · performance rank 19 Flattered

Points per game: 1.22 overall, 1.75 at home, 0.80 away. Points v an average side: −1.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Crystal Palace (A)	3-2	+1.04
19 Sept	Everton (A)	0-1	−0.66
10 Oct	Fulham (H)	2-1	−0.86
17 Oct	Man City (A)	2-3	−0.96
23 Oct	Nott'm Forest (H)	1-1	−2.01
31 Oct	Hull (A)	2-2	−0.30

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 9 · performance rank 1 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.33 overall, 1.60 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: +0.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Brentford (H)	2-2	+1.12
20 Sept	Liverpool (H)	0-1	−0.79
10 Oct	Chelsea (A)	1-5	+0.46
18 Oct	Sunderland (H)	2-0	+3.76
25 Oct	Man United (A)	3-0	+1.46
31 Oct	Leeds (H)	2-0	+0.48

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Ipswich: 3 pts from 5, performance −0.54. Bournemouth: 7 pts from 5, performance +0.74.

Ipswich: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Saša Lukić, Abdul Fatawu Issahaku. (confirmed XI)

Bournemouth: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Alex Scott. (confirmed XI)