Premier League · Sun 8 Nov, 16:30 Logged before kick-off

Man United 4-4 Aston Villa

My shortlist

Man United the pick at home to Aston Villa

The model's view

53%

25%

22%

Man United win 53% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 47% / 28% / 25%; re-priced when the line-ups came out.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 25%.

Man United are 18th with 7 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Aston Villa are 11th with 12 points from 9 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Man United took 2 points from 4 games, Aston Villa 8 from 4; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Man United have gone 7 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 18 · performance rank 15 As it looks

Points per game: 0.78 overall, 1.00 at home, 0.60 away. Points v an average side: −5.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Man City (H)	0-1	+0.41
20 Sept	Fulham (A)	1-1	+0.06
10 Oct	Tottenham (H)	1-1	−1.13
18 Oct	Leeds (A)	1-1	−0.29
25 Oct	Bournemouth (H)	0-3	−1.00
31 Oct	Chelsea (A)	0-2	−1.52

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 11 · performance rank 14 As it looks

Points per game: 1.33 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.75 away. Points v an average side: +0.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Nott'm Forest (H)	1-2	−1.59
19 Sept	Tottenham (A)	3-2	−0.43
10 Oct	Brentford (H)	2-2	+1.13
17 Oct	Newcastle (A)	1-0	+0.75
24 Oct	Man City (H)	2-1	−0.44
31 Oct	Fulham (H)	1-1	−0.60

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Man United: 2 pts from 4, performance −0.14. Aston Villa: 8 pts from 4, performance −0.20.

Man United: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Luke Shaw, Marcus Rashford, Lisandro Martínez. (confirmed XI)

Aston Villa: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ross Barkley, Emiliano Buendía, Matty Cash, George Hemmings. (confirmed XI)