Premier League · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Logged before kick-off

Sunderland 1-0 Chelsea

My shortlist

Chelsea the pick away at Sunderland

The model's view

25%

26%

50%

Chelsea win 50% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 24% / 27% / 49%; re-priced when the line-ups came out.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 25%.

Sunderland are 20th with 5 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank 13th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Chelsea are 4th with 16 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank only 9th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Sunderland took 4 points from 5 games, Chelsea 9 from 5; on performance Chelsea were 0.3 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Sunderland have gone 7 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 20 · performance rank 13 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.56 overall, 1.00 at home, 0.20 away. Points v an average side: −5.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Arsenal (H)	0-2	+0.41
20 Sept	Man City (A)	3-5	+1.60
10 Oct	Brighton (H)	0-2	−0.51
18 Oct	Bournemouth (A)	0-2	−3.88
25 Oct	Leeds (H)	0-0	−0.02
31 Oct	Coventry (A)	1-3	+0.89

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 4 · performance rank 9 Flattered

Points per game: 1.78 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.50 away. Points v an average side: +4.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Hull (H)	2-2	−1.42
18 Sept	Brentford (A)	0-3	−1.62
10 Oct	Bournemouth (H)	5-1	−0.27
17 Oct	Everton (A)	2-0	+1.16
24 Oct	Tottenham (H)	0-2	−0.54
31 Oct	Man United (H)	2-0	+1.81

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Sunderland: 4 pts from 5, performance −0.47. Chelsea: 9 pts from 5, performance −0.13.

Sunderland: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Kevin Danso, Nilson Angulo. (confirmed XI)

Chelsea: Usual strength. Missing regulars: João Pedro, Emiliano Martínez, Maxence Lacroix, Jorrel Hato, Josh Acheampong. (confirmed XI)