Primeira Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 15:30 Logged before kick-off

Estoril v Maritimo

My shortlist

Estoril the pick at home to Maritimo

The model's view

52%

28%

20%

Estoril win 52% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Estoril 1.8, Maritimo 1.1.

Estoril are 18th with 2 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 11 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Maritimo are 14th with 8 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Estoril took 2 points from 7 games, Maritimo 7 from 7; on performance there was little between them.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Estoril have gone 10 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Estoril at home have spent 43% of their minutes behind, against a league average of 27% (5 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
Maritimo have gone 8 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Maritimo away have spent 57% of their minutes behind, against a league average of 25% (5 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 18 · performance rank 14 As it looks

Points per game: 0.20 overall, 0.40 at home, 0.00 away. Points v an average side: −11.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
7 Sept	Arouca (H)	0-0	−0.42
14 Sept	Sp Braga (A)	0-1	−0.24
20 Sept	Casa Pia (H)	1-2	−2.28
10 Oct	Academico Viseu (A)	1-2	+0.68
25 Oct	Moreirense (H)	1-3	±0.00
31 Oct	Porto (A)	0-4	−1.01

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 14 · performance rank 11 As it looks

Points per game: 0.80 overall, 0.80 at home, 0.80 away. Points v an average side: −4.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Benfica (H)	0-3	+0.01
14 Sept	Moreirense (A)	1-3	−1.54
19 Sept	Gil Vicente (A)	1-1	−0.17
10 Oct	Porto (H)	1-2	−0.98
23 Oct	Guimaraes (A)	0-5	−1.28
1 Nov	Santa Clara (H)	0-2	+1.15

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Estoril: 2 pts from 7, performance −0.43. Maritimo: 7 pts from 7, performance −0.40.

Estoril: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Maritimo: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)