Primeira Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 20:30 Logged before kick-off

Estrela 2-3 Benfica

My shortlist

Benfica the pick away at Estrela

The model's view

15%

77%

Benfica win 77% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 7% / 15% / 77%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 77%.

Estrela are 12th with 10 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Benfica are 2nd with 25 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 10 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.3 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Estrela took 1 points from 4 games, Benfica 10 from 4; on performance Benfica were 2.5 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Estrela have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 12 · performance rank 10 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −4.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Sept	Sp Braga (H)	2-1	+0.28
14 Sept	Rio Ave (A)	3-3	+0.16
20 Sept	Academico Viseu (H)	0-2	−2.15
11 Oct	Arouca (A)	0-1	+1.01
24 Oct	Casa Pia (H)	0-2	−0.09
31 Oct	Moreirense (A)	1-2	+0.03

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 2 · performance rank 1 As it looks

Points per game: 2.50 overall, 2.60 at home, 2.40 away. Points v an average side: +10.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
9 Sept	Moreirense (A)	4-0	+2.39
13 Sept	Gil Vicente (H)	3-1	+1.53
20 Sept	Porto (A)	1-3	+0.95
11 Oct	Guimaraes (H)	2-0	+1.87
26 Oct	Santa Clara (A)	2-1	+0.50
2 Nov	Alverca (H)	1-0	+0.65

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Estrela: 1 pts from 4, performance −0.70. Benfica: 10 pts from 4, performance +1.76.

Estrela: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Luan Patrick, Eddy Doué. (confirmed XI)

Benfica: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Leandro Barreiro, Andreas Schjelderup. (confirmed XI)