Primeira Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 18:00 Logged before kick-off

Guimaraes 1-2 Porto

My shortlist

Porto the pick away at Guimaraes

The model's view

12%

22%

66%

Porto win 66% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 12% / 22% / 66%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 66%.

Guimaraes are 13th with 9 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank 5th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Porto are 1st with 30 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 15 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.3 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Guimaraes took 6 points from 7 games, Porto 21 from 7; on performance Porto were 0.9 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Porto have won 10 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 13 · performance rank 5 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.90 overall, 1.60 at home, 0.20 away. Points v an average side: −4.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
6 Sept	Casa Pia (H)	0-0	+1.25
12 Sept	Academico Viseu (A)	1-2	+0.23
20 Sept	Moreirense (H)	1-1	−0.14
11 Oct	Benfica (A)	0-2	−0.39
23 Oct	Maritimo (H)	5-0	+0.35
2 Nov	Gil Vicente (A)	0-0	−0.04

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 1 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 3.00 overall, 3.00 at home, 3.00 away. Points v an average side: +14.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
4 Sept	Moreirense (H)	2-1	+1.37
12 Sept	Casa Pia (A)	4-1	+0.46
20 Sept	Benfica (H)	3-1	+1.85
10 Oct	Maritimo (A)	2-1	+1.52
24 Oct	Gil Vicente (A)	1-0	+0.94
31 Oct	Estoril (H)	4-0	+1.83

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Guimaraes: 6 pts from 7, performance +0.38. Porto: 21 pts from 7, performance +1.29.

Guimaraes: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Oliwier Zych, Lohann Doucet, Thiago Balieiro. (confirmed XI)

Porto: Usual strength. Missing regulars: André Silva, William Gomes. (confirmed XI)