Primeira Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 20:30 Logged before kick-off

Rio Ave 0-1 Sp Braga

My shortlist

Sp Braga the pick away at Rio Ave

The model's view

14%

24%

62%

Sp Braga win 62% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 14% / 24% / 62%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 62%.

Rio Ave are 17th with 7 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.1 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Sp Braga are 8th with 14 points from 10 games. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Rio Ave took 7 points from 8 games, Sp Braga 10 from 8; on performance Sp Braga were 1.6 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 17 · performance rank 18 As it looks

Points per game: 0.70 overall, 0.80 at home, 0.60 away. Points v an average side: −5.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
6 Sept	Santa Clara (A)	0-4	−1.38
14 Sept	Estrela (H)	3-3	−1.23
19 Sept	Alverca (A)	0-1	−3.09
11 Oct	Nacional (H)	3-2	−0.30
25 Oct	Famalicao (H)	0-4	−1.09
1 Nov	Academico Viseu (A)	1-2	+0.39

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 8 · performance rank 4 As it looks

Points per game: 1.40 overall, 1.80 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −0.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
14 Sept	Estoril (H)	1-0	+0.57
20 Sept	Santa Clara (A)	0-0	−0.28
9 Oct	Sp Lisbon (H)	1-3	+1.67
19 Oct	Gil Vicente (H)	1-2	−0.43
25 Oct	Nacional (A)	0-1	+0.84
1 Nov	Famalicao (H)	3-0	+1.07

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Rio Ave: 7 pts from 8, performance −1.07. Sp Braga: 10 pts from 8, performance +0.54.

Rio Ave: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Tamás Nikitscher, Andreas Ndoj, Francisco Petrasso. (confirmed XI)

Sp Braga: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Vítor Carvalho, Victor Gómez, Adrian Bajrami, Demir Ege Tıknaz. (confirmed XI)