Santa Clara 1-2 Gil Vicente

The model's view

Santa Clara win 46% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 46% / 30% / 24%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 24%.

The story

• Santa Clara are 4th with 21 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
• Gil Vicente are 7th with 15 points from 10 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
• Against the 7 sides both have played: Santa Clara took 16 points from 7 games, Gil Vicente 11 from 7; on performance there was little between them.
• The caution: Santa Clara take 1.6 points a game at home, against 2.1 overall.
• Santa Clara look slightly weaker than usual (missing Gonçalo Paciência, Guilherme Romão, Lucas França).

Worth knowing

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Common opponents

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Team news